Were the candidates’ voting instructions followed?

From the first to the second round, the vote transfers of the eliminated candidates constitute one of the keys to political analyses. In order to decipher the choice of voters in the secrecy of the voting booth, Ifop traditionally conducts a poll on voting day (1).

Third in the first round with 21.9% of the votes cast, Jean-Luc Mélenchon urged his voters not to “not give a single voice to Madame Le Pen”, without however deciding between the Macron vote, white or null. In fact, the share of his electorate who voted in favor of Marine Le Pen in the second round remained low and stable, at 13-14%. On the other hand, the share having opted for the Republican front has decreased compared to 2017, from 54% to 42%.

Still on the left, Yannick Jadot’s voters (4.6% in the first round) overwhelmingly favored Emmanuel Macron. Personally closer to the center left than to the anti-liberal left embodied by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the representative of Europe Écologie-Les Verts had moreover, without hesitating, called to block the far right by depositing an Emmanuel Macron ballot in the ballot box».

On the right, a narrow majority of voters followed Valérie Pécresse (4.8% in the first round) in her choice of the Republican front. But, among the others, a slightly larger share compared to François Fillon’s electorate five years ago preferred the far-right champion (23% against 18%). It is true that the Republicans had, this time, contented themselves with declaring thatno voice can be cast on Marine Le Pen». A change of line compared to 2017, when the party had called “to vote against Marine Le Pen”so for Emmanuel Macron.

Looking ahead to the second round, two candidates had supported Marine Le Pen: Éric Zemmour (7.1%) and, as in 2017, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (2.1%). Unsurprisingly, the voters of Éric Zemmour, whose position is more extremist than that of the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, overwhelmingly voted in favor of the latter.


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